How can a 54 year-old rule have such an abrupt closing chapter?
This article will help shed light on the key events that led to Dec 8 & the departure of Assad
Key insiders have come forward to help piece together what happened
Countdown to Assad ‘s fall started on Oct 7, 2023, when Hamas / Sinwar initiated an attack on what had become known as the Nova music festival massacre inside Israel
While the world was shocked by the event, few at the time thought that this massacre would have anything to do with Assad or his downfall nearly a year later If Hamas started the chain link that would lead to Assad ‘s fall, it was the decision of Hezbollah / Nasrallah to open a front on Israel ‘s northern border from Lebanon that would turn out to be a decisive mistake for what has been known as the resistance axis Sep 27, 2024 was both symbolic & real turning point when Israel decided to kill Nasrallah as one of the key figures in the resistance axis. That day, Assad lost what has arguably been his number one ally, confidant, financial & manpower resource.
Assad now had less than 3m left. Why was Hezbollah / Nasrallah so important to Assad?
As Syria ‘s war started, Assad soon found out that his army was not committed enough to die for him. As economic sanctions started to bite, his ability to pay his soldiers waned further. Standards of living were in free fall for all citizens, including those in the army. Was Syria ruled by Alawis or the Assad family that happened to be Alawi ?
The answer to this question is critical but has received little attention. Based on numerous interviews and conversations, the answer seems to be resoundingly clear – Syria was ruled by the Assad family and Alawis were both used by the family while the community of course also benefited from this two way relationship It is true that Alawis made most of the key intelligence agencies as well as the senior figures in the Army. This is not to say that Sunnis, like Ali Mamlouk, did not hold key positions. Important thing to remember, however, is that Alawis did not really put up a fight when the final chapter arrived
But why? If Assad was good at anything, it was to convince the minorities as well many capitals that without him and his family rule, all minorities (and even secular citizens) were doomed
Alawis, in particular, fully believed this narrative and hence threw their fate to Assad ‘s will. As the war broke out and economic sanctions followed, paying the regular army became increasingly harder. Fighting and dying for Assad was getting more difficult to rally as financial resources dwindled. As that unfolded , Assad realized he needed to garner support from groups whose commitment didn’t need money but ideology, religion & sectarian identity fervour
Enter Shia and Hezbollah’s fear of Sunni Islam as Assad’s tool to exploit Assad hates being tied to one patron. Improving ties with UAE was part of that strategy of not being reliant on either just Iran or Russia
Improving ties with Abu Dhabi convinced Assad that should things deteriorate he now access to a rich , powerful and resourceful capital that can come to his defense should things take a turn for the worse As Israel pummeled Hezbollah & made the decision to destroy the Iranian influence in the region, one capital read the chess board perfectly
Enter the role of Turkey led by both Erdogan and Hakan Fidan, who would both soon emerge as the strongest players in the new unfolding redesign of the region as Iran retreats.