Lagos, Nigeria – January 12, 2026 –
A stark warning from global advisory firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has highlighted the deepening poverty crisis in Nigeria, projecting that approximately 141 million Nigerians—equivalent to about 62% of the population—could be living below the poverty line by the end of 2026.
The projection, detailed in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth,” comes despite anticipated improvements in key macroeconomic indicators. PwC attributes the rise primarily to weak real income growth and the lingering effects of inflation, which continue to erode household purchasing power even as headline inflation moderates.
The report notes that most Nigerians are unlikely to see income gains strong enough to offset rising costs in the near term. Low-income households remain particularly vulnerable, as food accounts for up to 70% of their total consumption, leaving them exposed to elevated food prices and supply shocks. High energy costs, logistics expenses, and exchange rate pass-through effects are expected to keep prices of essential goods elevated, limiting affordability improvements.
This outlook aligns closely with recent assessments from the World Bank, which projected poverty peaking at 62% (around 141 million people) in 2026 before a marginal decline to 61% in 2027. The figures reflect a dramatic worsening over recent years—from about 81 million people (40%) in 2018/19 to roughly 139 million in 2025.
On a more optimistic note, Nigeria’s Central Bank (CBN) forecasts real GDP growth of 4.49% in 2026 (up from an estimated 3.89% in 2025), driven by ongoing structural reforms, increased oil production, enhanced security in production areas, and expanded domestic refining capacity. Headline inflation is projected to ease to an average of 12.94%, supported by declining food and petrol prices, improved monetary-fiscal coordination, and greater foreign exchange stability.
The Federal Government’s proposed 2026 Appropriation Bill—titled the “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity” and valued at ₦58.18 trillion—focuses on consolidating recent economic reforms while prioritizing key sectors. Major allocations include:
₦5.41 trillion for defence and security
₦3.56 trillion for infrastructure
₦3.52 trillion for education
₦2.48 trillion for health
Infrastructure development remains a cornerstone, with emphasis on flagship projects such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto–Badagry Expressway, the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline (nearing completion for early 2026 operations to boost northern energy supply), and new railway initiatives aimed at enhancing connectivity, reducing logistics costs, and stimulating economic activity.
However, critics and analysts have raised concerns over fiscal risks, including high debt-service obligations (projected at ₦15.52 trillion in the budget), a provisional deficit of around 3-4.28% of GDP (funded largely through domestic borrowing), and challenges in revenue generation amid sluggish non-oil growth. Experts warn that without targeted interventions—such as accelerated job creation, productivity enhancements, stronger social protection programs, and reforms in agriculture and logistics—poverty reduction will remain elusive, posing risks to long-term economic stability, domestic consumption, and social cohesion.
PwC and other observers stress that while macroeconomic gains are emerging, translating them into broad-based household welfare requires addressing structural issues like informal sector wage dynamics, employment conditions, and distributional inequalities.
Clarion News Channel will continue monitoring developments in Nigeria’s economic landscape, including reactions from policymakers and progress on the 2026 budget implementation. Stay informed with verified updates.
Alarming Poverty Surge Looms: PwC Warns 141 Million Nigerians (62%) Could Live Below Poverty Line in 2026 Despite Projected GDP Growth and Easing Inflation
