Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Eases to 14.45% in November 2025, Eighth Consecutive Monthly Decline

Abuja, Nigeria
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its sustained downward trajectory in November 2025, easing to 14.45 per cent year-on-year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This represents a 1.6 percentage-point drop from the 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025 and marks the eighth consecutive monthly decline in inflation.
The November figure is the lowest inflation rate recorded in several years and falls below the federal government’s 2025 budget target of 15 per cent, offering a measure of relief to consumers and policymakers alike.
Analysts attribute the continued moderation in inflation to slower food price increases, base-year effects from the recent CPI rebasing, and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments. Food inflation, which historically has a heavy influence on the overall index, has shown signs of deceleration compared with the much higher rates seen in 2024.
The report also indicates that on a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose modestly, suggesting that consumer prices continue to trend upward, albeit at a significantly slower pace than seen earlier in the year.
Nigeria battled elevated inflation throughout 2024 and early 2025, with headline rates exceeding 30 per cent at times, reflecting pressures from import costs, exchange rate volatility, elevated food prices, and broader structural constraints.
The gradual disinflation trend observed in 2025 has encouraged commentary from economists regarding the potential for single-digit inflation early next year if current trends persist. Nigerian economic commentators have highlighted that while the decline is notable, ongoing vigilance in monetary and fiscal policy will be critical to sustaining price stability.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has maintained its main policy rate during several recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, emphasising the need to balance inflation control with support for economic growth. The continued moderation in inflation offers increased flexibility for future monetary policy decisions, potentially opening space for calibration of interest rates in line with evolving economic conditions.
For households, the downward trend in inflation could translate to reduced pressure on living costs, particularly for staple food items that traditionally account for a large share of consumer expenditure. However, many economists caution that a lower inflation rate does not automatically equate to lower prices; rather, it reflects slower increases in prices compared with the previous year.
Business sectors sensitive to consumer demand are also watching inflation trends closely, as sustained declines in price pressures can support increased investment and spending confidence.
If the current disinflation trend continues into early 2026, some forecasts suggest that Nigeria could approach single-digit inflation, a milestone that would significantly alter the economic landscape and potentially improve real incomes for consumers. However, structural issues  including fiscal deficits, exchange rate management, and food supply chain constraints remain key variables that could influence future inflation trends.