Clarion News Channel – January 14, 2026 | Lagos, Nigeria
Nigeria’s economy enters 2026 with contrasting indicators: optimistic forecasts for accelerated GDP growth driven by ongoing reforms, yet warnings of deepening poverty that could affect a record number of citizens, according to recent analyses from major institutions.
Leading projections point to stronger economic expansion this year. The World Bank has upgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s real GDP growth to 4.4% in 2026, up from earlier estimates, citing continued expansion in services, a rebound in agriculture, and modest gains in non-oil industry. This follows an estimated 4.2% growth in 2025. Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects 4.49% growth, attributing it to well-sequenced fiscal and monetary policies, stable forex markets, rising oil output, and improved external buffers. PwC Nigeria forecasts around 4.3% real GDP growth, supported by higher crude production and stronger services performance, with inflation expected to moderate gradually.
These positive outlooks build on 2025 reforms—including exchange-rate liberalization, subsidy adjustments, and monetary tightening—that have eased inflation (from highs above 20% to around 14.45% by late 2025) and stabilized the naira, boosting investor confidence.
Foreign investment inflows reflected renewed appeal in 2025, with the United Kingdom leading as the dominant source. UK investors accounted for approximately 65% of recent capital inflows, including notable deals such as $7.5 million into agribusiness firm Babban Gona and $40.5 million into Johnvent Industries. Combined foreign portfolio and direct investment reached nearly $14 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing full-year 2024 totals and contributing to a stronger Nigerian Exchange performance.
On the energy front, Nigeria has achieved significant progress in reducing reliance on imported refined petroleum products. Central Bank data shows spending on fuel imports dropped sharply by 54% over two years—from $14.58 billion in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71 billion in the same period of 2025. This decline, accelerated by 41% year-on-year in 2025, stems from expanded domestic refining capacity (including contributions from the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitated facilities), subsidy removal effects curbing consumption, and tighter forex management.
In the telecom sector, stakeholders anticipate a shift from 2025’s consolidation phase to expansion in 2026. The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) predicts accelerated growth, driven by industry-led infrastructure rollout, advocacy for open access networks, fair wholesale pricing, and support for indigenous and smaller operators. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has outlined plans to enhance service quality, enforce accountability on operators for better consumer experience, promote fair competition, and facilitate sustainable investments—potentially deepening digital inclusion as broadband penetration surpassed 50% in 2025.
Despite these macroeconomic gains, poverty remains a stark challenge. PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 warns that, despite stability improvements, poverty could rise to 62% of the population, affecting approximately 141 million Nigerians this year. This projection reflects weak real income growth for many—particularly in the informal sector—lingering inflation effects, high energy costs, food insecurity, and uneven distribution of reform benefits. The World Bank echoes similar concerns, noting poverty peaked around this level before a potential slight decline in 2027.
Experts emphasize that while growth outperforms global averages (with world GDP projected at around 2.6-3.1%), translating stability into inclusive prosperity requires targeted interventions: job creation, productivity boosts, effective social protection, security enhancements, and fiscal discipline to ensure reforms benefit the broader population.
As Nigeria navigates 2026, the balance between sustaining momentum in growth drivers and addressing poverty’s structural roots will define the year’s economic narrative. Clarion News Channel will continue monitoring developments.
Mixed Signals for Nigeria’s Economy in 2026: Robust Growth Projections Amid Soaring Poverty Concerns
